Preparing for Super Tuesday

On March 1st, 2016, Town Meeting Day in the Green Mountain State, Vermonters will cast their ballots in the Democratic or Republican primary races. In addition, 12 other states will make their preferences known—a total of five caucuses and nine primaries. It’s Super Tuesday, the first official date to kick off the nominating process for the parties, with exception made for the first four states.

On the Republican side, 641 delegates are up from grabs on Super Tuesday, making up 26 percent of the total delegate count.

For the Democrats, 907 pledged delegates will be allocated, making up 22 percent of the pledged delegates and 19 percent of the total number of delegates, pledged and unpledged.

States to vote on Super Tuesday:

  • Alabama, Primary
  • Alaska, Caucus
  • Arkansas, Primary
  • Colorado, Caucus
  • Georgia, Primary
  • Massachusetts, Primary
  • Minnesota, Caucus
  • North Dakota, Caucus
  • Oklahoma, Primary
  • Tennessee, Primary
  • Texas, Primary
  • Vermont, Primary
  • Virginia, Primary
  • Wyoming, Caucus

In Vermont, Senator Bernie Sanders has a lock on the Democratic side. The VPR Poll has, Sanders with 78 percent among likely Democratic primary voters (MoE +/- 5%) and Clinton with 13 percent; nine percent said they were not sure. Vermont likely Republican voters (MoE +/- 9%) favor Donald Trump (33 percent); 15 percent favor Marco Rubio, and 14 percent favor Ohio Governor John Kasich. Twelve percent of likely Republican voters remained unsure.

Tracking the presidential primary preferences in Vermont since the VPR Poll did not detect any change in support in either Party. While New Hampshire appeared to affect Vermonter’s preferences, there is no indication that Nevada or South Carolina have had comparable effects. Sanders’ win in New Hampshire seemed to shore up some support, but not a great deal more than he had before that primary victory. Most Sanders voters were going to support their senator no matter what happened in New Hampshire.

The effect of New Hampshire in the Republican side is seen in the figure below.

GOP_NH_effect
Figure 1. Impact of New Hampshire Primary on Vermont Likely Republican Primary Voters’ Preferences